The US commercial real estate (CRE) market is currently presenting a unique opportunity for investors, particularly those in private equity. Distressed assets are on the rise, and private equity firms are strategically positioning themselves to capitalize on this rare chance to acquire troubled properties at potentially significant discounts.
Betting on Distress: A Prime Opportunity for Private Equity
Private equity firms are increasingly focused on the distressed US property market, much like predators sensing vulnerability. According to data from Preqin, an impressive 64% of the $400 billion allocated for property investments is now concentrated on North America. This marks the highest regional allocation in two decades, underscoring the significant opportunities perceived by investors in the US CRE market.
Filling the Gap: A Market in Decline
The US CRE market is essentially on sale. Office property values, for instance, dropped by nearly 25% last year due to the widespread shift to remote work. This year alone, $1 trillion in CRE debt is set to mature, leading to a potential surge in defaults as many borrowers struggle to meet their repayment obligations. PGIM has reported a staggering $150 billion gap between maturing loans and new credit availability, highlighting the lucrative potential for patient and strategic investors willing to step in.
Shrinking Pool: Global PE Capital Trends
While the US continues to attract private equity buyers, the global pool of private equity capital for CRE has notably shrunk. By May 2023, the amount set aside for real estate debt strategies had decreased by 26% to $56.1 billion, according to Preqin. This contraction could potentially limit interest in non-performing CRE loans on a global scale. Charles McGrath of Preqin has noted that “dry powder is declining” due to higher borrowing costs, which are impacting both fundraising and transaction volumes. Additionally, European CRE debt is facing significant challenges, with loan-to-value (LTV) ratios exceeding 100% and nearing €160 billion, indicating severe financial strain.
The Looming Crisis: US Banks at Risk
US banks, which hold substantial exposure to real estate, face considerable risks. Recent capital injections into institutions like NYCB and First Foundation underscore the severity of the situation. Oaktree’s analysis suggests that a 20% drop in CRE values could potentially put more US banks at risk than during the 2008 financial crisis. Barry Sternlicht of Starwood Capital Group has highlighted ongoing challenges for lenders, with Starwood’s income trust tightening withdrawal limits to maintain liquidity.
The Takeaway
Experts agree that while the US CRE market presents fertile ground for distressed asset buyers, the global CRE market faces prolonged recovery challenges. The global pool of private equity capital for CRE has decreased significantly, which may limit interest in non-performing CRE loans globally. Higher borrowing costs are deterring fundraising and transactions, making strategic investment decisions more critical than ever.
C-PACE Expands Across the U.S.: A Public-Private Partnership Success
In conjunction with these investment trends, the C-PACE (Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy) program continues to gain momentum across the United States. Since 2015, more than 7,000 financings have been completed through this public-private partnership, with over $2 billion invested in 2023 alone. This success is encouraging the expansion of C-PACE programs nationwide.
Several states have taken significant steps toward creating viable statewide C-PACE programs:
North Carolina: Statewide legislation was approved by the House and Senate and signed into law by Governor Cooper.
Georgia: Statewide legislation was approved by the House and Senate and signed into law by Governor Kemp.
Idaho: Legislation passed both the Senate and House and was signed into law in April by Governor Little.
Additionally, states like Alaska, Hawaii, Florida, Minnesota, and New York have made updates to broaden the application of C-PACE, further enhancing its appeal and effectiveness for property owners seeking to reduce the cost of capital for renovations or new constructions.
The convergence of these trends highlights a pivotal moment for investors and developers in the CRE market. With strategic investments and leveraging programs like C-PACE, stakeholders can navigate the current challenges and capitalize on the emerging opportunities in distressed US real estate.
Krone Weidler, Founder & Principal
Cadre Healthcare Realty Advisors
1095 SE 177th Place, Suite 404-M14
Summerfield, FL 34491
C: (813) 842-2365
O: (866) 355-3594
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