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U.S. Deaths Expected to Outpace Births: A Transformative Demographic Shift

Krone Weidler

The United States is on the cusp of a significant demographic transformation, as outlined in a recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report highlighted by the Wall Street Journal. The report predicts that, by 2033, deaths in the U.S. will outpace births—a milestone initially projected for 2040. This seven-year acceleration reflects evolving trends in birth rates, immigration patterns, and population dynamics.


The implications of this shift are profound, especially for industries tied to population growth and aging, including senior housing and healthcare real estate. At Cadre Healthcare Real Estate Advisors, we believe understanding these demographic trends is essential to developing proactive strategies for the future.


Key Takeaways from the CBO Report


  1. Population Growth Slows

    By 2054, the U.S. population is expected to grow to 372 million—a significant reduction from earlier forecasts of 383 million. The anticipated growth rate over the next three decades has been revised downward to 6.3%, compared to the 10.5% previously estimated.

  2. Aging Population

    The U.S. population will not only grow more slowly but will also age significantly. By 2054, there will be fewer individuals aged 24 or younger—93 million, down from 106 million in 2025. This decline underscores a generational shift that will affect workforce demographics, healthcare demands, and senior living needs.

  3. Immigration’s Critical Role

    The CBO notes that without immigration, the U.S. population would begin shrinking in 2033. Immigration remains a key driver of population stability and growth, particularly as fertility rates fall below the level required for generational replacement.

  4. Slowing Annual Growth

    By the end of the 30-year forecast period, annual population growth will dwindle to just 0.02%, signaling a period of stagnation that could redefine economic and social dynamics in the U.S.


What This Means for Healthcare and Senior Living Real Estate


As population growth slows and the population ages, the demand for senior housing and healthcare facilities will inevitably rise. This shift presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, operators, and developers.


  • Increased Demand for Senior Housing: With fewer young people entering the workforce and a growing elderly population, the need for assisted living, memory care, and independent living facilities will expand.

  • Workforce Considerations: Labor shortages, already a pressing concern in healthcare, may worsen as the younger demographic shrinks. Recruiting and retaining skilled healthcare professionals will become even more critical.

  • Evolving Development Strategies: Investors will need to prioritize flexible, scalable solutions that cater to an aging population while adapting to slower population growth in certain markets.


Credit to Argentum

Organizations like Argentum, a leading advocate for senior living communities, play a vital role in addressing the needs of an aging population. Their work underscores the importance of creating environments that support seniors' health, wellness, and quality of life. At Cadre Healthcare Real Estate Advisors, we applaud their efforts and are committed to aligning our strategies with the evolving demands of the senior living sector.


Preparing for the Future

The demographic trends outlined by the CBO are a call to action for industries serving seniors. Proactive planning, innovative solutions, and strategic partnerships will be key to navigating this new landscape. At Cadre Healthcare Real Estate Advisors, we’re here to help our clients capitalize on opportunities while addressing the challenges of an aging America.

If you're interested in exploring investment or development opportunities in senior housing or healthcare real estate, contact us today to learn how we can help.

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